Spain announced a long-anticipated complete ban on arms exports to Israel at the end of September, but the halt in these imports is causing challenges.
Madrid primarily purchased bullets, rocket launchers, anti-tank missiles, tank radios, and transmission systems from Israel, but terminating these agreements carries a significant cost.
The expense associated with terminating the different agreements is projected to be €1.2 billion. The Silam rocket system contract had a value of €700 million, while the Spike anti-tank missile contract was valued at €287 million.
Ending these agreements with Israel creates challenges for the military forces that rely on this equipment.
"The primary impact is not on exports to Israel, but on the agreements that Spanish industries have established with Israel," warns Félix Arteaga, a defense and security researcher at the Royal Elcano Institute in Madrid.
These cancellations are anticipated to strip the Spanish military and law enforcement agencies of planned supplies.
And the nation's police force is likely to miss out on the kind of ammunition they had "anticipated," "and our pilots will postpone their training," Arteaga adds.
Furthermore, swiftly replacing Israeli suppliers may pose challenges, warns Arteaga, as the defense sector is encountering significant limitations.
The market is now filled with agreements. Each new agreement leads to a delay in delivery, extra expenses, and not all technologies are the same. They do not match the quality of Israeli technology.
However, this financial challenge is not experienced by every analyst.
"A large number of producers exist globally, so I believe there are methods to locate equipment in different countries," says Christophe Wasinski, a professor and researcher at the Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB).
Rare decision in Europe
Emulating Slovenia's approach, Spain chose to halt arms sales to Israel as a gesture of disapproval over the conflict in Gaza and to put an end to the "genocide," stated Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.
Only two countries within the EU have taken steps toward a complete prohibition. Other capitals, including Rome, Brussels, and Amsterdam, have only restricted exports to Israel.
However, these choices need to be monitored carefully, since Europe is the primary market for Israel's defense sector.
"It is projected that in 2024, Israel's total exports reached roughly $14 billion (€11.9 billion), with nearly half of this amount coming from sales to European nations," says Christophe Wasinski.
He references Romania, Germany, Denmark, and Estonia as countries that import.
"European countries purchase from Israeli defense companies anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank missiles, drones, ammunition for small arms and light weapons, and electronic systems, which constitutes a fairly broad array of products," he continues.
For analysts, it is challenging to forecast whether additional member nations could choose to halt imports.
Israel maintains offices and affiliated companies across Europe. Furthermore, the nation does not consistently sell its arms directly.
In some instances, such as in Spain, it could involve businesses collaborating to create these technologies on their own.
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