Pakistan, October 3 -- Pakistan is experiencing the consequences of climate change. The floods, which caused significant damage in KPK and GB, are now causing destruction in other regions of the country. The rising frequency and intensity of disasters like floods, droughts, saltwater intrusion, and other effects make Pakistan extremely susceptible to climate change. Although there is a high level of vulnerability, climate change is largely neglected and disregarded in policy discussions. Decision-makers often fail to understand the seriousness and extent of climate threats. They tend to address climate issues only after they occur and have difficulty reinforcing institutions related to climate change. For instance, the Pakistan Climate Change Authority was created to coordinate policy efforts, improve monitoring of policies and mechanisms, among other goals. However, it has not been carrying out its duties as specified in its mandate, and some experts think it has become an unnecessary organization.
In a situation of high vulnerability, the government needs to be aware that turning a blind eye to climate change is not a viable choice. Disregarding it may endanger development objectives, disrupt social unity, and damage the environment. Nevertheless, the most serious effects of climate change would be its potential to threaten national security, spark internal conflicts, and cause wars between nations. This is not just a theory; it is a fact that is already occurring in various regions globally. Recently, climate change has fueled conflicts in Syria, Sudan, Yemen, and other areas, which eventually resulted in the downfall of these countries.
As a result, global organizations, including think tanks, research institutions, and non-governmental organizations, have been examining the effects of climate change on national and international security. Top security agencies around the world, such as the Pentagon, CIA, MI-6, and various European agencies, have identified this as a major area of concern. They are making significant investments to understand possible consequences and to create strategies for safeguarding national sovereignty and the well-being of citizens. They have generated numerous reports. Drawing from these insights, they have started to reallocate resources and train their personnel to address the challenge more efficiently.
Nevertheless, the efforts of military and security organizations primarily concentrate on the requirements of the armed forces, such as military infrastructure, readiness, and operations. They tend to neglect the human and developmental elements of security. For example, the Pentagon carried out a study to identify the vulnerabilities of its global military and security infrastructure. Moreover, these agencies have also sent personnel to collaborate with academic institutions at the local level to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges. The Pentagon also supports its personnel in pursuing advanced degrees (PhD) in the area of climate change and its effects on security.
On the flip side, the aspect of security related to climate change is largely absent from discussions about climate change in Pakistan, let alone from its policies. Most concerning is the fact that the military is not acknowledging the seriousness of the national security threat posed by climate change. For instance, as mentioned earlier, the Pentagon is taking steps to move military infrastructure to safeguard security assets. Additionally, the government is allowing the development of residential societies and commercial centers in climate-vulnerable areas of Islamabad.
On the other hand, there is also a lack of literature and research studies, especially those that rely on primary data, which aid in comprehending the issue. Only a limited number of theoretical or literature review-based papers or studies are available. Acknowledging the significance of the topic, UNDP Pakistan initiated a study in 2015, in partnership with the National Defence University. The author of this article (Shakeel Ramay) was in charge of that research. The study's results are intriguing, particularly regarding the understanding of ordinary citizens.
We initiated the research by examining the understanding of ordinary people. It was evident that 90% of those surveyed placed Pakistan among the countries most susceptible to climate change. They also identified climate change as a significant threat to their means of living, access to food, and availability of water. During the focus group discussions, participants stressed that the shortage of food, water, and job opportunities could result in conflicts, uprisings, and violence within the nation, as well as wars between different countries. They also pointed out the challenges related to insufficient climate-conscious water management.
Moreover, individuals had a clear comprehension of the possible climate change-induced catastrophes. They believed that Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to floods and droughts. As per 64% of the participants, floods are expected to occur more frequently in Pakistan because of climate change. An additional 23% of participants thought that droughts will become more common in the future. They highlighted that the severity and scale of these disasters will increase, leading to significant consequences for the nation's economic, social, and security structures. Participants from Sindh and Balochistan, in particular, expressed greater worry about droughts, as they recall the negative experiences from the 1999-2003 drought. They mentioned that millions of people were affected, hundreds of thousands of animals perished, and hundreds of thousands of individuals were forced to move in search of work.
We then inquired of participants regarding the likelihood of conflict stemming from climate change. A significant majority (79%) of those surveyed indicated that climate change is playing a role in conflicts over natural resources. They provided the example of the 2010 flood and the resulting displacement caused by seawater intrusion in Badin. They explained that some individuals were forced to relocate following the 2010 flood, as they had lost their means of support and possessions. Regrettably, they were not received warmly by the local communities. They encountered strong opposition from both the local populations and provincial authorities.
Finally, we examined people's comprehension of the link between climate change and national security. We got an unforeseen reaction; to our astonishment, 83% of participants explicitly mentioned that climate change will definitely affect national security. They also expressed strong opinions about the topic during the focus group sessions.
Most participants rated the impact as high, extremely high, or exceptionally high. Additionally, some respondents from Balochistan pointed out a fascinating aspect. They mentioned that the drought between 1999 and 2003 caused severe damage to people's lives and properties, leading to a substantial rise in poverty levels. Pakistan's adversaries took advantage of this situation to create unrest in Balochistan. While there are no empirical studies on this matter, it is still a crucial observation. Pakistan should investigate this issue thoroughly.
In summary, according to the research and existing literature, various recommendations have been formulated for review, particularly for the military. First, the armed forces should carry out a vulnerability assessment of their military facilities concerning climate-related effects. Second, defense organizations need to incorporate climate-related elements into their defense preparations and operational strategies.
Third, Pakistan creates specialized units within the military to tackle non-conventional security issues, including natural disasters and migration caused by climate change. We can take inspiration from China, which has developed two primary initiatives: 1) military operations other than war (MOOTW) and 2) humanitarian aid and disaster response (HADR), to outline the military's role and duties. Finally, the government should also revise policies concerning settlements in regions vulnerable to climate impacts or nearby, such as coastal zones.
Posting Komentar