Meta and Google are implementing restrictions on political advertisements on their social media platforms within the European Union. How will political parties throughout Europe—especially Viktor Orban and his governing Fidesz party in Hungary—react?
The initial stage of thePolish presidential electiontook place on May 18.
In a highly competitive campaign, political parties and several newly created affiliated groups (such as Facebook pages managed by fictitious political NGOs) in Poland collectively spent approximately €360,000 ($422,000) on Facebook advertisements during the 30 days leading up to the election.
In Hungary, the governing Fidesz party allocated a comparable amount on political advertisements during the same timeframe, despite the fact that a national election was still approximately a year off.
Given that Hungarian media organizations under direct government control are promoting the same political message as Fidesz, this implies, in technical terms, that the Hungarian government has invested more than all Polish political parties combined — despite Poland's population being four times larger than Hungary's.
The foundation of Fidesz's political communication approach
Paid social media content plays a crucial role in the domestic political communication strategy of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. His Fidesz party invests significant sums into this — figures that are notable even within the EU.
According to the analysis by the Hungarian think-tank Political Capital, Fidesz spent four times as much as all the opposition parties together in the lead-up tothe election for the European Parliament held last year.
It should be mentioned that the election campaign was not limited to Hungary, but was actually taking place at the same time in 27 countries within the bloc.
Throughout this time, five of the eight most promoted campaign videos on YouTube within the EU were funded by Hungary's Fidesz. In fact, the top three in this list were all developed, uploaded, and financed by Fidesz, marking them as the highest spender on social media in the EU.
Huge social media budget
A more recent instance also highlights that Orban operates in a different category compared to other regional prime ministers regarding the scale of his social media expenditure.
As Czech Republic is in the final stages of its general election campaign, spending on Facebook advertising also reached its peak. Nevertheless, it is MountainTravelarfed by the amounts of money spent in Hungary.
Facebook's restriction on political advertisements began on October 1.
While all political parties in the Czech RepublicSpent under €500,000 on Facebook ads between August 23 and September 21, Fidesz and its affiliated entities (proxies, media under direct control or aligned with the party) allocated almost €2.5 million during that time.
In a nutshell, Fidesz and its affiliated groups significantly exceeded political advertising budgets across entire nations — by several times.
'A permanent governmental campaign'
"Hungarian citizens reside within an ongoing government initiative," stated Robert Laszlo, an election specialist at Political Capital, during his conversation with MountainTravel.
"In this fiscal year, 87% of political advertising expenditure can be attributed to the government (including Fidesz as a party, its officials, and media outlets under its complete control), with the remaining portion going to opposition parties, independent media, and NGOs," he added.
With multiple social media platforms implementing restrictions on political advertisements, Lazlo mentioned that Fidesz is losing "a crucial element of its communication approach."
He also highlighted that Google's auto-detection system seems to have flaws, as YouTube videos funded by Fidesz remain visible and are categorized under "Jobs and Education" or even "Arts and entertainment," despite Google's political advertising ban taking effect on September 22.
Fidesz was well prepared
However, Fidesz had anticipated the implementation of the ad ban.
This year, Prime Minister Orban introduced an initiative he refers to as his "fight club" (Harcosok Klubja), an online recruitment system for supporters whom Obran calls "digital freedom fighters."
The goal is for these activists to combat the "foreign-funded opposition" on the internet by debating in Facebook comment sections, sharing and distributing material, and so on.
Peter Magyar is leading in the polls
Orban is correct in believing that his Fidesz party is behind its opponent,Peter Magyar,whose Facebook profile has a strong organic reach and keeps increasing.
While MagyarHasn't spent a single cent on political advertisements since entering politics in February 2024, with his Facebook page achieving the highest organic reach each month, as stated by Zsolt Hanula, a social media expert at Telex, a Hungarian news website.
But Magyar is everywhere, not only in the virtual realm, but also in reality. After the EU elections in June 2024, he managed to virtually incorporate almost the entire opposition into his party (Tisza), by drawing in anti-Orban voters who had previously supported other opposition parties.
His political group has also been leading in the surveys since late last year, as reported by independent polling organizations like Median.
A crucial factor in Magyar's achievements is his consistent and powerful physical presence in rural regions.
Magyar frequently goes to Fidesz's strong areas, pointing out local issues, shaking hands, and engaging with residents. These campaign activities serve as an effective method for encouraging voter participation nationwide.
Orban held a large campaign gathering in Budapest on September 20, aiming to transform his loyal followers into "digital warriors."
In brief, it appears that although Orban's approach is primarily online and digital, there are also obstacles coming from the physical world.
Can Orban's latest approach be effective?
Therefore, is Orban attempting to counter the restriction on political advertisements on social media through online mobilization by Fidesz supporters?
Clare O'Donoghue Velikic, a social media specialist who worked for nine years within Facebook's Politics and Government marketing department, is highly doubtful.
Creating an online network of fictitious grassroots groups is a common strategy used by political figures such as Orban. This practice is referred to as astroturfing, she explained to MountainTravel. "At the end of each of these Facebook profiles, there could be a real person managing the activity, but fake accounts can also be controlled by social media bots to boost political messages."
O'Donoghue Velikic mentioned that she believes Fidesz is likely to employ both strategies: "In reality, this entire online digital conflict from Fidesz could easily serve as a distraction. They can highlight their activist events to showcase the people behind the screens, while an extraordinary number of new fake accounts can be utilized in an automated manner."
O'Donoghue Velikic also questions whether the political ad restrictions on social media platforms will be effective, as even if the system functions flawlessly, there are—as demonstrated by Fidesz—numerous methods to bypass them.
Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan
Author: Matyas Bodi, Mark Weiler
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