Rwanda's chances of achieving a historic first-ever FIFA World Cup qualification received an unexpected boost this week when FIFA's disciplinary committee penalized South Africa by deducting three points for including an ineligible player in their 2-0 victory over Lesotho in March. The match result has been overturned to a 3-0 forfeit win for Lesotho, which has disrupted the standings in Group C of the 2026 FIFA World Cup African qualifiers, creating uncertainty in a group that many had thought was settling into a predictable pattern with two rounds left. South Africa, who were previously at the top, now find themselves second behind Benin, both teams tied on 14 points, with Bafana Bafana trailing on goal difference. Nigeria is third with 11 points, while Rwanda follows closely with the same number but a worse goal difference (0 compared to Nigeria's +2). With two matches remaining, Amavubi still have a tough road ahead. However, thanks to FIFA's decision, the path, although narrow, is now more clear. Rwanda's final two games are as challenging as they are crucial — a home game against Benin on October 10 at Amahoro Stadium, followed by an away match against South Africa in Johannesburg on October 14. Coach Adel Amrouche's team's fate depends not only on their own performance but also on results elsewhere — and in some cases, on prayer (if one believes in divine intervention), because Amavubi will need it. What Rwanda needs to do To have a real chance of winning Group C and securing automatic qualification to the World Cup in the USA, Mexico, and Canada, Rwanda must defeat Benin on October 10. This is non-negotiable. There is no debate. Anything less than three points would effectively eliminate them from the automatic qualification race. A win would put them level with Benin on 14 points and give them the head-to-head advantage (having drawn 1-1 in the reverse fixture). Moreover, Amavubi need to beat Bafana Bafana on October 14. Rwanda famously defeated South Africa 2-0 in the reverse fixture in November 2023, in Huye. Repeating this performance away from home would take them to 17 points — a total that could be enough to top the group, depending on other results. Rwanda needs everything to go their way — but life isn't so simple. Win and hope Nigeria drops points. Nigeria will face Lesotho and Benin in their last two matches. While the Super Eagles are favorites, their form has been inconsistent. Rwanda will hope Lesotho, encouraged by the points awarded by FIFA, can secure at least a draw. More importantly, Rwandans will be hoping Nigeria drops points against Benin on the final day — otherwise, the goal difference race could become complicated. What could go wrong Even if Rwanda wins its matches, qualification isn't guaranteed, and we might look back at what could have been — and what if. If Nigeria wins both matches, they will also finish with 17 points. In such a scenario, goal difference will decide the group winner. Rwanda would need to win by large margins to outscore Nigeria’s potential goal tally. Scoring goals has always been Amavubi's weakness. Similarly, if South Africa beats Zimbabwe before hosting Rwanda, they could also reach 17 points. Again, goal difference could be the deciding factor. Rwanda's current goal difference is zero. That's where they fall behind the most. Benin (+4), South Africa (+3), and Nigeria (+2) all have a cushion. Simply winning may not be enough — winning by a large margin might be necessary, and that could be too much to ask. The playoff safety net Even if Rwanda doesn't top the group, hope may still lie in the CAF playoff route. The top four second-placed teams across the nine African groups will advance to a playoff stage, with one team moving to the intercontinental playoff. To stay in the conversation, Rwanda will almost certainly need to finish second in the group with at least 15 or more points and a strong goal difference. A draw and a win might not be enough — they'll likely need all six points from the final two games. Rwanda's dream is alive, but it's balanced on a tightrope. Beat Benin. Beat South Africa. Score as many goals as possible. Pray for Nigeria to stumble. All of this needs to happen for Amavubi! It's quite a tall order — but if Amavubi's historic ambitions are to be realized, they'll need to play their best football in the final two fixtures. Whatever happens in those two matches will set a precedent. They've done it before — notably defeating South Africa in Huye, and with belief, discipline, and a bit of luck, Rwanda might just rewrite the story. It's now up to Amrouche and his team to step up, deliver, and be remembered in Rwanda's folklore. The nation is watching. The dream continues, albeit with a sense of despair. Let's beat Benin next Friday. C'mon!
Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).
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