For over four months, Europe has remained one of US President Donald Trump 's favourite punchbags, taking harsh hits in trade negotiations , security along with societal concerns.
During this time, the European Union extended an olive branch to Beijing, aiming to secure concessions on economic issues in return for improved political relations. The current agreement in Brussels is that China has decided against seizing it. .
Surrounded by two dominant global powers, an increasing number of European leaders advocate for the EU to develop greater autonomy. These leaders seek to reduce reliance on the United States for defense and technological advancements, minimize dependence on China for critical resources and clean technologies, and lessen their dependency on Russia for energy supplies.
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During the past week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that 'a new global system will come into being in this decade.'
If we don’t wish to passively endure the repercussions of this situation for Europe and beyond, we need to forge a new order. History doesn’t tolerate hesitation or delay. Our objective is achieving European autonomy.
The French President, Emmanuel Macron -- who has been the foremost advocate for strategic independence -- concurred.
“We aim to collaborate, yet we wish not to be continually dictated about what’s permissible, what isn’t, and how our lives will transform due to the choice of one individual,” Macron stated, referring to Trump, during his address at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore.
We require Europe to become significantly more self-reliant, which involves strengthening their own resources and skills, fostering local industries, and collaborating voluntarily with the United States and regional allies. However, this should be done without relying on anyone else, particularly when it comes to ensuring our own safety.
This week in Brussels, the subject ignited intense discussion. Although many support the idea itself, disagreements arise regarding the specifics of increased autonomy and its practicality.
"One must collaborate with either of them—or most likely both—since no rational individual thinks this can be achieved independently," stated a French diplomat disagreeing with Macron’s perspective.
Companies based in Europe are wary of being pushed into choosing allegiances, yet they are postponing these decisions for as long as they can.
"De-risking discussions are becoming increasingly prominent both in the U.S. and China," stated Jason Collins, who serves as the chairman for the European Business Organisation, an alliance of various lobbying entities.
No one managing an organization can be assured of what the coming week holds—it’s been utterly unsettling when considering investments in businesses. Some corporations are beginning to adopt a 'US-centric' approach,” he noted, implying that enterprises are increasingly adopting the “made in China for China” supply chain model that has gained prominence recently.
The concept of a technology cold war is not unfamiliar territory for ASML, based in the Netherlands, which stands as the pinnacle of European technology sector achievements.
The firm leads the worldwide market for precise lithography machinery used to etch tiny circuits onto increasingly minuscule semiconductor chips. However, it has faced restrictions that now prevent them from selling their top-tier products to Chinese customers due to U.S. export regulations; these rules compelled the Dutch administration to comply.
Sebastian Heyn, who leads ASML's geopolitical efforts, stated that the outlook was grim even for his firm.
Heijn informed the Brussels Economic Security Forum on Thursday that he looks to the Dutch government and Europe to support us during these times of rising political pressure, emphasizing this should be done within a collaborative framework.
He similarly pointed out the increasing tendency of both the U.S. and China to employ export restrictions, which severely hamper European industries. He remarked, “As we rely more on these bottlenecks, their effectiveness diminishes. It’s crucial to remember that our counterparts possess such leverage as well. Thus, the objective should not be to strangle one another into submission, correct?”
Many people believe that the issue surrounding the independence discussion is due to Europe facing a trustworthiness crisis.
Onlookers highlight statistics indicating that contrary to the belief that the EU has distanced itself from Russia following its incursion into Ukraine three years back, the European Union expended greater financial resources on Russian energy and raw materials last year compared to what it provided as military assistance to Ukraine.
They contend that failing to counter Trump’s bullying appears as an indication of timidity and lack of seriousness, whereas in Brussels, there is an increasing belief that China does not make any concessions because it understands the EU won’t impose penalties significant enough to substantially damage its economy.
"If you aim to approach this strategically, mere capabilities aren’t enough; establishing credibility is essential too. Currently, Europe lacks this credibility," stated Henry Farrell, a political scientist from Johns Hopkins University and co-author of the bestseller book. Underground Empire .
"We've heard about the Taco trend, Trump consistently backs down We also possess the EACO characteristic, where Europe consistently backs down. This leads to the establishment of anti-coercion measures that remain unused, despite claims that we genuinely do not wish to employ them. Consequently, various other systems are created, ensuring that such coercion will likely never occur.
Should Europe wish to remain competitive in this arena, it must prove capable of following through with its warnings, since the Brussels effect—where EU rules influence actions well outside the union—is defunct and unlikely to return.
Nevertheless, Farrell concurred that European autonomy was crucial, especially when it came to technological advancements. Falling significantly short of the major powers, failing to advance might leave Europe with no choice but to align exclusively with one particular system or framework.
"If Europe lacks a certain level of technological self-sufficiency, it finds itself in an extremely difficult situation. The continent has faced manipulation from both China and the United States. Without developing the capability to operate autonomously and achieve genuine strategic independence, Europe will face serious challenges," he stated at the economic security forum.
A rising concern is brewing amongst lower-level European Union officials about their leadership’s reluctance to counteract the influence of the two global powers, with China being particularly prominent, as an indication of vulnerability.
Sources indicate recurrent mentions of “red lines” in the European Union’s dealings with China. Most prominently by providing weapons to Russia that were not acted upon.
As preparations for an upcoming EU-China summit in Beijing continue, concerns arise that even though China shows no inclination to address key grievances, European leaders might settle for a subpar agreement. This could potentially undermine the EU’s standing with both Beijing and Washington even more.
Certain officials are concerned that following the conversation between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, Europe might still be subjected to China's export restrictions on rare earth elements, despite these measures being lifted for the United States. "They prefer to maintain control over us," an insider commented.
In a recent report, Brad Setser, an economist affiliated with the Council on Foreign Relations, recounted an incident from a 2018 Wall Street Journal article where Xi spoke to Western business leaders saying, “In the West, you believe that if someone strikes your left cheek, you offer them your right one. However, in our culture, we respond by hitting back.”
This episode should be considered when interacting with powerful entities, as Europe’s readiness to follow it might indicate its path toward autonomy.
" Xi’s grasp of Western culture might not withstand a pub fight, but his fundamental impulse to retaliate does hold some validity," Setser noted in Le Grand Continent.
Absent retaliation, negotiations would merely focus on reducing part of the recently imposed US tariffs in exchange for alterations to longstanding European policies.
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The article initially appeared on the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), which is the premier source for news coverage of China and Asia.
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